SAM OHUABUNWA'S PARADIGM

Last week was soaked in political tension. The dictator Yahya Jammeh that ruled Gambia as a fiefdom in the last 22 years and who lost the last December election first refused to accept the appeal of the ECOWAS leaders to respect the wishes of the Gambian People. The ECOWAS mediation team led by President Muhammadu Buhari visited Jammeh several times but he remained adamant. Rather,he declared a state of emergency all over The Gambia, rebuffed and threatened ECOWAS and the international community. He even got his legislature to grant him a 90-day extension of his term.  In response ECOWAS amassed an intervention military force to go and force him out. Time ticked and there was apprehension everywhere. Some Gambians took flight as they did not want to become collaterals to the imminent forced eviction of the sit-tight rogue leader. Nigerians began to worry about the fate of Nigerians living in The Gambia and pressure was brought upon the government to plan an ordered evacuation...

 I have grown up over a long time in Nigeria to understand that if you say anything that runs counter to popular opinion, attempt to defend any one already judged and condemned either by the media or the mob or say what is regarded as not politically correct you are likely to be attacked by those who do not have the intellectual discipline to accommodate differing opinion or view. But because, I always want to stand up for the underdog and maligned, I must stand up and go against popular opinion on certain recent developments in the Nation. I do this  because I know that there are always two or three sides to a coin and I hate to be among those who shout 'crucify him, crucify him' just to please Pilate, even if the man is innocent as the Pharisees did to Jesus.   Recently, I read the comments of some people who were abusing Bishop Oyedepo of the Winners Chapel because he was said to have said a prayer which was seen as not politically correct. He was reported to have p...

Beyond my new year wish expressed on this page last week that Nigeria will get out of recession in 2017, I am of the firm view that Nigeria will indeed come out of recession this year. The stabilizing oil prices in the international market aided by the willingness of Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran to consider supply management options give hope of higher foreign exchange earnings which may ease the persisting dollar crunch. The bullish 7.3 trillion 2017 budget will build on the ongoing implementation of the 2016 budget and push enhanced economic activities, particularly in the infrastructure area and in social support. If the Government pushes the recommended fiscal measures that will incentivize local production and Agric Business; and if the Legislature makes headway with the PIB options that will reenergize investment in Petroleum Industry, our economy should transit from recession and resume growth.  2016 was definitely a tough year for many businesses. It is therefore critic...

 As we start a new year, it is usual to make new year wishes. Some make new year resolutions. In normal circumstances, wishes and resolutions are not often the same thing. Wishes are usually made without much effort, often without much thinking and some times utopian  or unrealistic, whereas resolutions are more serious decisions for a future implementation, usually reached after much thought, reflection and perhaps debate. But at the start of the year,very often and for many people, what goes as new year resolutions are mere wishes. And that is why many new year resolutions are often un realized. For many,some effort is made to implement the resolutions for a few days, few weeks and in exceptional cases, for a few months and then they return to square one or in my own case way back, I usually returned to square zero. But to be sure my wishes for Nigeria for 2017, though optimistic, are realistic and reflect deep thought.   THAT NIGERIA GETS OUT OF RECESSION  Th...

I was dancing on my seat as I read of the new deal recently entered with the International Oil Companies(IOCs) by the Federal Government that would end the perennially problematic Joint venture (JV) cash calls that have dogged the Nigerian Petroleum industry since I was a Cub-economic advocate. From our days at the Enabling Environment Forum (EEF) to the formation of the Nigerian Economic summit Group (NESG) in 1993 until perhaps last week, the problem caused by the inability of the Federal Government of Nigeria to meet its JV cash call obligations has been a recurring decimal, each time the problems of attracting more investment into the upstream oil sector and indeed to the entire economy was being discussed. If you asked any oil major chief, what was his greatest challenge, he would immediately say it was Nigerian Government's chronic inability or should we say unwillingness to meet its Joint Venture cash calls. I say it could be unwillingness because even in the days of oil bo...

There is an Igbo proverb that says: "Onye nnaya duru ohi, na eji ukwu agbawa uzo",translated to mean that a son whom the father sends to go and steal, uses his legs to break down the door. He goes in full confidence, without a care trusting that if anybody challenges him, his father will be handy to extricate him. This is exactly what played out in Rivers State at the recent  second rerun of legislative elections. The first rerun ended in-conclusive because of alleged violence inspired by desperate politicians who insisted that they must win Rivers State.    Largely because of fear of violence or so as they claimed, INEC delayed the second rerun and perhaps was considering leaving it completely till 2019 until the Senate issued an ultimatum forcing them to announce a date for the second re-run. In the view of some political grandmasters of Rivers State, they would feel better and much more relevant, if Rivers State had no representatives in the National Assembly tha...

OPPOSITION PARTIES LEAD WEST AFRICA'S NEW POLITICAL EVOLUTION   It was the President of Sierraleone who said a few years ago that" if Nigeria sneezes, the rest of West Africa catches cold". That statement only confirmed what has long been known that it is Nigeria that is keeping West Africa down. Any day Nigeria decides to rise, West Africa will automatically rise with it. Indeed it is Nigeria that is delaying the rise of Africa itself. South Africa, Egypt, Kenya and Nigeria determine the fate of Africa. South Africa is doing ok, Kenya is doing great, Egypt is flagging and Nigeria is gasping. While this may be disputed by some, everyone agrees that the fate of West Africa is in Nigeria's hand- for good and for bad.   So during the 2015 elections an opposition party-an alliance between Tinubu's ACN and Buhari's CPC glued together by the new PDP swept the Nigerian elections to cruise to victory, beating an incumbent President and displacing a ruling party, ...

  Very often, we say that the way to solve our economic problem is to diversify our economy. But the truth is that Nigeria's economy is fairly diversified right now. Current GDP figures give credence. As at half year for example, non-oil was contributing about 90% of our GDP, leaving the 'almighty Oil & Gas' with only a paltry 10%.    The key contributors to our GDP were Agriculture( 19.7%), Trade-wholesale & Retail ( 21.55%), Manufacturing(9.93%)-close to oil & Gas;Construction( 3.99%),Real Estate( 6.46%); other services including Telecommunications and financial services( 4.08%)   Today, the structure of our economy gives an impression of a sophisticated economy where Services contribute more to the Economy than Industry  (  50%vs 21%)   The tragedy of our economy today is that oil & Gas which contributes only 10% to GDP is the one we depend upon for about 90% of our Foreign exchange. Which is to say that the non- oil ...

Often, many people have wondered what is the cause of the trouble with Nigeria. And many have come up with several reasons why we are where we are. Why we seem to move one step forward and two steps backwards. Why a country with so much wealth and talent will house one of the greatest numbers of poor people in Nigeria. Why a country born with so much hope in 1960 is unable to achieve adulthood in 2016. Last week on this page I had indicated that about 50% of Nigerians are classified as miserable by the World and 68% are regarded as operating below the poverty line. The distinguished Chinua  Achebe wrote a book with the title: "The trouble with Nigeria " where he also identified many of the issues but concluded that the central problem with Nigeria is poor leadership. Professor Chinua Achebe was right that Nigeria's critical challenge is leadership. So also are the other Nigerians who have proffered other reasons why things are not working the way they should in Nigeria....

Last week the National Bureau of Statistics( NBS) released the bad news that headline inflation has hit 18.3% and has thus doubled in under one year, since we closed 2015 at about 9.5%. In some climes a 100% growth in inflation could cause riots. At the same time, the Naira exchange rate has depreciated by nearly 60% in the official market while it has more than doubled in the parallel market. Interest rates which came down, close to single digit at the end of 2015 has remained high and growing. Since July the Monetary Policy rate ( MPR )has been at 14%, though actual bank interest rate is about 25%. Similarly, unemployment has continued to rise from quarter to quarter. Gross unemployment which came low to about 6.4% in Q1 of 2015 has exceeded 15% by Q3 this year. When added to Underemployment it reaches 31%. In the youth population this comes to over 42%. This Trilemma of rising inflation, rising exchange rate and rising interest rate has created a dilemma for the government. Super...

Last Tuesday, Donald Trump defied most political pundits, most pollsters and stunned the World with a largely unpredicted landslide victory over Hilary Clinton and the Democratic Party . Many reasons are being adduced for this phenomenon, none of which can successfully explain why a man who came from outside, never gone through an election before, never held a public or political office of any kind and who broke all the rules of political competition and engagement, became the President of the World's largest democracy and economy at the first shot. I believe that the best we can make from this historic outcome at this time is to make some common-sense deductions and learn a few lessons.  1. BYE TO POLITICAL CORRECTNESS  Mr Trump seemed to have rewritten the rules for political competition. Standard wisdom all these years suggested that there were several things one must not say, several positions one must not take openly if one wanted to win elections. Mr Trump said ...

Chido Onumah recently published a new book titled: " We are all Biafrans". In the book, he seemed to be talking of the Biafran spirit- the Igbo spirit of enterprise, creativity, hardwork and excellence that yearns for Justice, Equity and fair play for all. In essence he believes that many People in Nigeria and may be elsewhere share similar sentiments, which is why many objective commentators classify the current Biafran agitation as a cry for Justice for Ndigbo.It is therefore reasonable to suggest that a way to deal with this agitation is to give Justice to Ndigbo, just as other people all over the World who feel discriminated against, marginalized or oppressed deserve to get justice. That therefore gives the Biafran agitation a global attraction.   Today, November 8, 2016, Americans go to the pools to elect the 35th President of the United States of America. And today we are all Americans, even if we will not all vote. This is because the American election has a globa...

To be sincere, I am truly excited with the way the war against corruption is gathering steam. My prayer is that PMB would not allow the momentum to decline. Up till two weeks ago, the focus seemed to have been on the past government. Then enter the Judiciary and the pandora box seemed to have been opened. Justice ADEMOLA blamed his problems on the Attorney General of the federation, Mr Malami. He had ordered the arrest of Malami for professional misconduct when he was in Kano. Though he eventually discharged Malami because of the intervention of the NBA, he was sure, the senior advocate of Nigeria, now AGF had been looking for an opportunity to take his pound of flesh.  Justice John Inyang Okoro said Minister Amaechi is behind his own problems. Amaechi asked him to influence the governorship election Supreme Court appeal judgements on Akwa Ibom, Rivers and Abia States. Amaechi insisted he was conveying the wishes of PMB and his party APC. Before that, the APC governorship candida...